Nuclear weapons are an existential threat but they aren’t really a major one at this point in time. Part of why people were more scared in the late 1950s and over the next few decades was that nuclear war was a real threat to humanity. (Moreover, if one was a general US or Soviet citizen, even if nuclear war didn’t wipe out humanity one would probably not personally survive.) A single city or two getting destroyed by terrorists with nukes is awful and horrific but isn’t an existential risk threat. The only existential risk from nuclear weapons is global thermonuclear war. What are the possible options for a nuclear war scenario?
India and Pakistan is one of the most likely possible scenarios. It would leave the subcontinent glowing pretty badly and hurt the global economy a lot but it is clearly not an existential risk threat.
Israel and Iran might exchange nukes, or Israel might use a few on one of its other neighbors if Israel judged its existence to be threatened. That almost happened in the 1973 war. But that would lead to only a glowing mideast. It would be unfortunate for oil prices and of course would lead to again massive loss of life, but isn’t a game-over situation.
There are also some scenarios involving North Korea, but again, none of them resemble an existential risk threat.
The only three powers with anywhere near enough nuclear material to cause a global war are Russia, China and the US. And it is true that any pair of those is a not completely implausible scenario. However, none is at all likely. Moreover, given the deterioration of the Russian military, and the general reduction in arms levels by both the US and Russia, it seems likely that a full-scale war would not be nearly as bad as it would have been during the Cold War. Given the current balance of power, the US and Russia both likely have close to first-strike capability on China, although for obvious reasons that option is a much poorer idea for Russia than it is for the US.
There are obviously a handful of other scenarios since both Great Britain and France have nuclear weapons, and it wouldn’t surprise me if some of the former Soviet states lied about giving up all their nukes, but again, none of these lead to an end of the world scenario.
There are a lot of existential risks out there, and nuclear war is one of them, but it isn’t that likely.
Nuclear weapons are an existential threat but they aren’t really a major one at this point in time. Part of why people were more scared in the late 1950s and over the next few decades was that nuclear war was a real threat to humanity. (Moreover, if one was a general US or Soviet citizen, even if nuclear war didn’t wipe out humanity one would probably not personally survive.) A single city or two getting destroyed by terrorists with nukes is awful and horrific but isn’t an existential risk threat. The only existential risk from nuclear weapons is global thermonuclear war. What are the possible options for a nuclear war scenario?
India and Pakistan is one of the most likely possible scenarios. It would leave the subcontinent glowing pretty badly and hurt the global economy a lot but it is clearly not an existential risk threat.
Israel and Iran might exchange nukes, or Israel might use a few on one of its other neighbors if Israel judged its existence to be threatened. That almost happened in the 1973 war. But that would lead to only a glowing mideast. It would be unfortunate for oil prices and of course would lead to again massive loss of life, but isn’t a game-over situation.
There are also some scenarios involving North Korea, but again, none of them resemble an existential risk threat.
The only three powers with anywhere near enough nuclear material to cause a global war are Russia, China and the US. And it is true that any pair of those is a not completely implausible scenario. However, none is at all likely. Moreover, given the deterioration of the Russian military, and the general reduction in arms levels by both the US and Russia, it seems likely that a full-scale war would not be nearly as bad as it would have been during the Cold War. Given the current balance of power, the US and Russia both likely have close to first-strike capability on China, although for obvious reasons that option is a much poorer idea for Russia than it is for the US.
There are obviously a handful of other scenarios since both Great Britain and France have nuclear weapons, and it wouldn’t surprise me if some of the former Soviet states lied about giving up all their nukes, but again, none of these lead to an end of the world scenario.
There are a lot of existential risks out there, and nuclear war is one of them, but it isn’t that likely.