The big reason why such a slowdown could happen is that the hyper-fast scaling trends can’t last beyond 2030, which has been the main driver of AI progress, and I still expect it to be the main driver to 2030, and if there’s no real way for AI systems to get better past that point through algorithmic advances, then this story becomes much more plausible.
The big reason why such a slowdown could happen is that the hyper-fast scaling trends can’t last beyond 2030, which has been the main driver of AI progress, and I still expect it to be the main driver to 2030, and if there’s no real way for AI systems to get better past that point through algorithmic advances, then this story becomes much more plausible.