FWIW, I think the impediments to rational policy making do not generally stem from lack of data (and hence will not be solved by using a trial-and-error approach to evaluate policy effectiveness). They mostly stem from objectives other than “rational policy”—e.g. re-election, which can be better achieved by making policies irrational (in certain ways).
For some big ticket policies, this is probably true: but at the very least, there are lots of little sub-policies which are attempting to deliver the big aims, and the precise details of how these are done is not likely to effect re-election. Except that there’s a motive to do them well so they can push the bigger outcomes (higher employment, economic growth, lower rates of illness...) in the right direction.
FWIW, I think the impediments to rational policy making do not generally stem from lack of data (and hence will not be solved by using a trial-and-error approach to evaluate policy effectiveness). They mostly stem from objectives other than “rational policy”—e.g. re-election, which can be better achieved by making policies irrational (in certain ways).
For some big ticket policies, this is probably true: but at the very least, there are lots of little sub-policies which are attempting to deliver the big aims, and the precise details of how these are done is not likely to effect re-election. Except that there’s a motive to do them well so they can push the bigger outcomes (higher employment, economic growth, lower rates of illness...) in the right direction.