IIRC, the AI 2027 scenario is those researchers’ median outcome in the sense that it’s a slightly pessimistic view of what they think could plausibly happen if nothing disruptive happens in the next two years; they expect disruptive things will probably happen and move the timeline back; 2027 might be their modal guess, but it’s not their median as most people use the term.
IIRC, the AI 2027 scenario is those researchers’ median outcome in the sense that it’s a slightly pessimistic view of what they think could plausibly happen if nothing disruptive happens in the next two years; they expect disruptive things will probably happen and move the timeline back; 2027 might be their modal guess, but it’s not their median as most people use the term.
(Also, what Rana Dexsin said.)