To understand the problem of induction simply think of organism X. Organism X is snatched from the wild and put in a new environment. On the first day in the new environment some strange compound is put in a small dish in the corner. Organism X eats it, simply because organism X is hungry. The second day, to organism X’s surprise, the dish is refilled. The dish is refilled for the next 100 days. Organism X’s confidence that tomorrow it will be fed is at an all time high by the 102nd day, but the very next day is November 18th. At the height of organism X’s confidence that their single variable model is infallible is the exact moment organism X is slaughtered so that I can have an enjoyable turkey dinner for Thanksgiving.