If people don’t reason in a Bayesian way, but they do reason, it implies there is a non-Bayesian way to reason which works (at least a fair amount, e.g. we managed to build computers and space ships).
There is. That does not mean that it is without error, or that errors are not errors. A&B is, everywhere and always, no more likely than A. Any method of concluding otherwise is wrong. If the form of reasoning that Popper advocates endorses this error, it is wrong.
Someone told me that humans do and must think in a bayesian way at some level b/c it’s the only way that works.
Eliezer can say whether curi’s view is a correct reading of that article, but it seems to me that if Bayesian reasoning is the core that works, but humans do a lot of other stuff as well that is all either useless or harmful, and don’t even know the gold from the dross, then this is not in contradiction with demonstrating that the other stuff is due to Popperian reasoning. It rather counts against Popper though. Or at least, Popperianism.
There is. That does not mean that it is without error, or that errors are not errors. A&B is, everywhere and always, no more likely than A. Any method of concluding otherwise is wrong. If the form of reasoning that Popper advocates endorses this error, it is wrong.
Whoever that was is wrong.
Eliezer?
Eliezer can say whether curi’s view is a correct reading of that article, but it seems to me that if Bayesian reasoning is the core that works, but humans do a lot of other stuff as well that is all either useless or harmful, and don’t even know the gold from the dross, then this is not in contradiction with demonstrating that the other stuff is due to Popperian reasoning. It rather counts against Popper though. Or at least, Popperianism.
Agreed.
Here’s someone saying it again by quoting Yudkowsky saying it:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/56e/do_people_think_in_a_bayesian_or_popperian_way/3w7o
No doubt Yudkowsky is wrong, as you say.
See my other response to Oscar_Cunningham, who cited the same article.