All else equal, AIs are slightly more likely to generate true facts than false ones
AIs are much more likely to generate false facts than true ones.
I think there might be some English ambiguity here. Suppose there are 81 names that the AI might come up with when writing the sentence “$NAME invented plastic”, and maybe the correct name has a 20% chance of being picked, and each of the incorrect names has a 1% chance of being picked. Then it’s simultaneously true that:
The correct name is 20x as likely to be picked as any individual incorrect name.
It is much more likely that the name picked will be incorrect than that it will be correct.
I think there might be some English ambiguity here. Suppose there are 81 names that the AI might come up with when writing the sentence “$NAME invented plastic”, and maybe the correct name has a 20% chance of being picked, and each of the incorrect names has a 1% chance of being picked. Then it’s simultaneously true that:
The correct name is 20x as likely to be picked as any individual incorrect name.
It is much more likely that the name picked will be incorrect than that it will be correct.