I agree that Dario disagrees with Eliezer somewhere. I don’t know for sure that you’ve isolated the part that Dario disagrees with, and it seems plausible to me that Dario thinks we need some more MIRI-esque, principled thing, or an alternative architecture altogether, or for the LLMs to have solved the problem for us, once we cross some capabilities threshold. If he’s said something public about this either way, I’d love to know.
I also think that some interpretations of Dario’s statement are compatible with some interpretations of the section of the IABIED book excerpt above, so we ought to just… all be extra careful not to be too generous to one side or the other, or too critical of one side or the other. I agree that my interpretation errs on the side of giving Dario too much credit here.
I’m pretty confused about Dario and don’t trust him, but I want to gesture toward some care in the intended targets of some of his stronger statements about ‘doomers’. I think he’s a pretty careful communicator, and still lean toward my interpretation over yours (although I also expect him to be wrong in his characterization of Eliezer’s beliefs, I don’t expect him to be quite as wrong as the above).
I find the story you’re telling here totally plausible, and just genuinely do not know.
There’s also a meta concern where if you decide that you’re the target of some inaccurate statement that’s certainly targeted at someone but might not be tarted at you, you’ve perhaps done more damage to yourself by adopting that mischaracterization of yourself in order to amend it, than by saying something like “Well, you must not be talking about me, because that’s just not what I believe.”
I agree that Dario disagrees with Eliezer somewhere. I don’t know for sure that you’ve isolated the part that Dario disagrees with, and it seems plausible to me that Dario thinks we need some more MIRI-esque, principled thing, or an alternative architecture altogether, or for the LLMs to have solved the problem for us, once we cross some capabilities threshold. If he’s said something public about this either way, I’d love to know.
I also think that some interpretations of Dario’s statement are compatible with some interpretations of the section of the IABIED book excerpt above, so we ought to just… all be extra careful not to be too generous to one side or the other, or too critical of one side or the other. I agree that my interpretation errs on the side of giving Dario too much credit here.
I’m pretty confused about Dario and don’t trust him, but I want to gesture toward some care in the intended targets of some of his stronger statements about ‘doomers’. I think he’s a pretty careful communicator, and still lean toward my interpretation over yours (although I also expect him to be wrong in his characterization of Eliezer’s beliefs, I don’t expect him to be quite as wrong as the above).
I find the story you’re telling here totally plausible, and just genuinely do not know.
There’s also a meta concern where if you decide that you’re the target of some inaccurate statement that’s certainly targeted at someone but might not be tarted at you, you’ve perhaps done more damage to yourself by adopting that mischaracterization of yourself in order to amend it, than by saying something like “Well, you must not be talking about me, because that’s just not what I believe.”