It seems to me that if I make some reasonable-ish assumptions, then 2 micromorts is equivalent to needing to drive for an hour at a random time in my life. I expect the value of my time to change over my life, but I’m not sure in which direction. So equating 2 micromorts with driving for an hour tonight is probably not a great estimate.
How do you deal with this? Have you thought about it and concluded that the value of your time today is a good estimate of the average value over your life? Or are you assuming that the value of your time won’t change by more than, say, a factor of 2 over your life?
That’s a great point! My rough model is that I’ll probably live 60 more years, and the last ~20 years will be ~50% degraded, so by 60 remaining life-years are only 50 QALYs. But… as you point out, on the other hand, my time might be worth more in 10 years, because I’ll have more metis, or something. Hmm.
(Another factor: if your model is that awesome life-extension tech / friendly AI will come before the end of your natural life, then dying young is a tragedy, since it means you’ll miss the Rapture; in which case, 1 micromort should perhaps be feared many times more than this simple model suggests. I… haven’t figured out how to feel about this small-probability-of-astronomical-payoff sort of argument.)
It seems to me that if I make some reasonable-ish assumptions, then 2 micromorts is equivalent to needing to drive for an hour at a random time in my life. I expect the value of my time to change over my life, but I’m not sure in which direction. So equating 2 micromorts with driving for an hour tonight is probably not a great estimate.
How do you deal with this? Have you thought about it and concluded that the value of your time today is a good estimate of the average value over your life? Or are you assuming that the value of your time won’t change by more than, say, a factor of 2 over your life?
That’s a great point! My rough model is that I’ll probably live 60 more years, and the last ~20 years will be ~50% degraded, so by 60 remaining life-years are only 50 QALYs. But… as you point out, on the other hand, my time might be worth more in 10 years, because I’ll have more metis, or something. Hmm.
(Another factor: if your model is that awesome life-extension tech / friendly AI will come before the end of your natural life, then dying young is a tragedy, since it means you’ll miss the Rapture; in which case, 1 micromort should perhaps be feared many times more than this simple model suggests. I… haven’t figured out how to feel about this small-probability-of-astronomical-payoff sort of argument.)