I’m quite surprised that you’re so critical of attempts to interpolate from the METR results (not enough data points), but A-okay with trying to read tea leaves from the interest rate, a single data point that is affected by all kinds of factors such as whether people expect Trump to crash the economy by bringing back mercantilism.
I’m not saying it’s invalid to critique predictions based on METR, I just don’t think you’re applying consistent standards.
I think the interest rate thing provides so little evidence either way that it’s misleading to even mention it. See the EAF comments on that post, and also Zvi’s rebuttal. (Most of that pushback also generalizes to your comment about the S&P.) (For context, I agree that AGI in ≤2030 is unlikely.)
I agree that the S&P is pretty much reading tea leaves, the author of the interest rates post @basil.halperin has separately argued it is not reliable.
I’m quite surprised that you’re so critical of attempts to interpolate from the METR results (not enough data points), but A-okay with trying to read tea leaves from the interest rate, a single data point that is affected by all kinds of factors such as whether people expect Trump to crash the economy by bringing back mercantilism.
I’m not saying it’s invalid to critique predictions based on METR, I just don’t think you’re applying consistent standards.
I don’t think either is reliable. It’s just an example of a reasonable baseline outside view.
I think the interest rate thing provides so little evidence either way that it’s misleading to even mention it. See the EAF comments on that post, and also Zvi’s rebuttal. (Most of that pushback also generalizes to your comment about the S&P.) (For context, I agree that AGI in ≤2030 is unlikely.)
Thanks for the links, I’ll look into it.
I agree that the S&P is pretty much reading tea leaves, the author of the interest rates post @basil.halperin has separately argued it is not reliable.