So it seems to be a reasonable interpretation that we might see human level AI around mid-2030 to 2040, which happens to be about my personal median.
What are the reasons your median is mid-2030s to 2040, other than this way of extrapolating the METR results?
What are the reasons your median is mid-2030s to 2040, other than this way of extrapolating the METR results?