I fully agree. Resource limitation is a core principle of every purposeful entity. Matter, energy and time never allow maximization. For any project constraints culminate down to: Within a fixed time and fiscal budget the outcome must be of sufficient high value to enough customers to get ROI to make profits soon. A maximizing AGI would never stop optimizing and simulating. No one would pay the electricity bill for such an indecisive maximizer.
Satisficing and heuristics should be our focus. Gerd Gigerenzer (Max Planck/​Berlin) published this year his excellent book Risk Savvy in English. Using the example of portfolio optimization he explained simple rules when dealing with uncertainty:
For a complex diffuse problem with many unknowns and many options: Use simple heuristics.
For a simple well defined problem with known constraints: Use a complex model.
The recent banking crisis gives proof: Complex evaluation models failed to predict the upcoming crisis. Gigerenzer is currently developing simple heuristic rules together with the Bank of England.
For the complex not well defined control problem we should not try to find a complex utility function. With the advent of AGI we might have only one try.
I fully agree. Resource limitation is a core principle of every purposeful entity. Matter, energy and time never allow maximization. For any project constraints culminate down to: Within a fixed time and fiscal budget the outcome must be of sufficient high value to enough customers to get ROI to make profits soon. A maximizing AGI would never stop optimizing and simulating. No one would pay the electricity bill for such an indecisive maximizer.
Satisficing and heuristics should be our focus. Gerd Gigerenzer (Max Planck/​Berlin) published this year his excellent book Risk Savvy in English. Using the example of portfolio optimization he explained simple rules when dealing with uncertainty:
For a complex diffuse problem with many unknowns and many options: Use simple heuristics.
For a simple well defined problem with known constraints: Use a complex model.
The recent banking crisis gives proof: Complex evaluation models failed to predict the upcoming crisis. Gigerenzer is currently developing simple heuristic rules together with the Bank of England.
For the complex not well defined control problem we should not try to find a complex utility function. With the advent of AGI we might have only one try.