Let us construct an analogous situation: let D be a disease that people contract with 99% probability, and they die at it at latest when they are n years old (let us say n=20).
Assume that you are 25 years old and there exists no diagnosis for the disease, but some scientist discovers that people can die at the disease even until they get 30. I don’t know you, but in your place I’d call it a bad news for you personally, since you will have to live in fear for 5 additional years.
On the other hand it is a good news in an abstract sense, since it means 99% of the people has a good chance of living ten years longer.
Now the price question: If you are 25 years old and don’t know whether you have the disease (p=99%) or not (p=1%), but you are presented with the option of being in one of the following two alternative universes: In one of them, people can live until they are 20 with the disease, in the other they die for sure before they become 30. Which one would you choose?
I must admit, it would not be an easy choice for me… :)
Let us construct an analogous situation: let D be a disease that people contract with 99% probability, and they die at it at latest when they are n years old (let us say n=20).
Assume that you are 25 years old and there exists no diagnosis for the disease, but some scientist discovers that people can die at the disease even until they get 30. I don’t know you, but in your place I’d call it a bad news for you personally, since you will have to live in fear for 5 additional years.
On the other hand it is a good news in an abstract sense, since it means 99% of the people has a good chance of living ten years longer.
Now the price question: If you are 25 years old and don’t know whether you have the disease (p=99%) or not (p=1%), but you are presented with the option of being in one of the following two alternative universes: In one of them, people can live until they are 20 with the disease, in the other they die for sure before they become 30. Which one would you choose?
I must admit, it would not be an easy choice for me… :)