UPDATE: This comment clearly misses the point. Don’t bother reading it.
Well, the worse you turn out to have done within the space of possible choices/outcomes, the more optimistic you should be about your ability to do better in the future, relative to the current trend.
For example, if I find out that I am being underpaid for my time, while this may offend my sense of justice, it is good news about future salary relative to my prior forecast, because it means it should be easier than I thought to be paid more, all else equal.
Generally, if I find that my past decisions have all been perfect given the information available at the time, I can’t expect to materially improve my future by better decisionmaking, while if I find errors that were avoidable at the time, then if I fix these errors going forward, I should expect an improvement. This is “good news” insofar as it expands the space of likely outcomes in a utility-positive direction, and so should raise the utility of the expected (average) outcome.
UPDATE: This comment clearly misses the point. Don’t bother reading it.
Well, the worse you turn out to have done within the space of possible choices/outcomes, the more optimistic you should be about your ability to do better in the future, relative to the current trend.
For example, if I find out that I am being underpaid for my time, while this may offend my sense of justice, it is good news about future salary relative to my prior forecast, because it means it should be easier than I thought to be paid more, all else equal.
Generally, if I find that my past decisions have all been perfect given the information available at the time, I can’t expect to materially improve my future by better decisionmaking, while if I find errors that were avoidable at the time, then if I fix these errors going forward, I should expect an improvement. This is “good news” insofar as it expands the space of likely outcomes in a utility-positive direction, and so should raise the utility of the expected (average) outcome.