There’s a sliding scale of trade-offs you can make between efficiency and Kolmogorov complexity of the underlying world structure. The higher the level your model is, the more special cases you have to implement to make it work approximately like the system you’re trying to model. Suffice to say that it’ll always be cheaper to have a mind patch the simpler model than to just go ahead and run the original simulation—at least, in the domain that we’re talking about.
And, you’re right—we rely on Solomonoff priors to come to conclusions in science, and a universe of that type would be harder to do science in, and history would play out differently. However, I don’t think there’s a good way to get around that (that doesn’t rely on simulator-backed conspiracies). There are never going to be very many fully detailed ancestor simulations in our future—not when you’d have to be throwing the computational mass equivalents of multiple stars at each simulation, to run them at a small fraction of real time. Reality is hugely expensive. The system of equations describing, to the best of our knowledge, a single hydrogen atom in a vacuum, are essentially computationally intractable.
To sum up:
If our descendants are willing to run fully detailed simulations, they won’t be able to run very many for economic reasons—possibly none at all, depending on how many optimizations to the world equations wind up being possible.
If our descendants are unwilling to run fully detailed simulations, then we would either be in the past, or there would be a worldwide simulator-backed conspiracy, or we’d notice the discrepancy, none of which seem true or satisfying.
Either way, I don’t see a strong argument that we’re living in a simulation.
There’s a sliding scale of trade-offs you can make between efficiency and Kolmogorov complexity of the underlying world structure. The higher the level your model is, the more special cases you have to implement to make it work approximately like the system you’re trying to model. Suffice to say that it’ll always be cheaper to have a mind patch the simpler model than to just go ahead and run the original simulation—at least, in the domain that we’re talking about.
And, you’re right—we rely on Solomonoff priors to come to conclusions in science, and a universe of that type would be harder to do science in, and history would play out differently. However, I don’t think there’s a good way to get around that (that doesn’t rely on simulator-backed conspiracies). There are never going to be very many fully detailed ancestor simulations in our future—not when you’d have to be throwing the computational mass equivalents of multiple stars at each simulation, to run them at a small fraction of real time. Reality is hugely expensive. The system of equations describing, to the best of our knowledge, a single hydrogen atom in a vacuum, are essentially computationally intractable.
To sum up:
If our descendants are willing to run fully detailed simulations, they won’t be able to run very many for economic reasons—possibly none at all, depending on how many optimizations to the world equations wind up being possible.
If our descendants are unwilling to run fully detailed simulations, then we would either be in the past, or there would be a worldwide simulator-backed conspiracy, or we’d notice the discrepancy, none of which seem true or satisfying.
Either way, I don’t see a strong argument that we’re living in a simulation.