Re 1: strategies need not be mutually exclusive, I expect companies to be pursuing efficiency breakthroughs right now to the extent that they are a good return on investment, regardless of the relative value of scaling. If scaling gets cut off an an option, why does the ROI of efficiency suddenly increase? That said, I expect efforts towards efficiency improvements in any case, but to me this just means that monitoring needs to scale up over time to match (e.g. via chip tracking).
Re human talent sitting on the sidelines: advancing the frontier of AGI is a narrow corner of a narrow corner of a narrow corner (repeat a few times) of places to employ one’s skills. There is plenty of success to be had in finding clever applications of AI at its existing level.
As a separate point, public backlash is a thing to expect as AI becomes more relevant to everyday life, regardless of whatever strategies people on LW or wherever dream up. So the alternative to an intentional pause based on careful planning is not “market solution,” it’s populist rage.
I think my main disagreement with this whole thread is actually regarding your point 2, but that probably goes deeper than is suited for a comment thread.
Re 1: strategies need not be mutually exclusive, I expect companies to be pursuing efficiency breakthroughs right now to the extent that they are a good return on investment, regardless of the relative value of scaling. If scaling gets cut off an an option, why does the ROI of efficiency suddenly increase? That said, I expect efforts towards efficiency improvements in any case, but to me this just means that monitoring needs to scale up over time to match (e.g. via chip tracking).
Re human talent sitting on the sidelines: advancing the frontier of AGI is a narrow corner of a narrow corner of a narrow corner (repeat a few times) of places to employ one’s skills. There is plenty of success to be had in finding clever applications of AI at its existing level.
As a separate point, public backlash is a thing to expect as AI becomes more relevant to everyday life, regardless of whatever strategies people on LW or wherever dream up. So the alternative to an intentional pause based on careful planning is not “market solution,” it’s populist rage.
I think my main disagreement with this whole thread is actually regarding your point 2, but that probably goes deeper than is suited for a comment thread.