[Link] Countering The Inside View and Making Better Decisions
Great article that systemetizes the process of taking the outside view into 4 steps. Thought LWers might get a kick out of it.
http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2015/05/inside-view-michael-mauboussin/
The value statement in the article appears to be; “make predictions, assess the quality of those predictions, adjust your prediction engine, repeat”
Misread: Countering the Inside View Makes You Delicious
Sorry, this was an useless post so now it’s gone
I think that this blog often falls into the trap of too much jargon without enough context, because it uses large chunks of direct quotes.
I don’t think that it over reached with reference class forecasting—it seemed to me to do a good job of summarazing. Which step do you feel overreached?
I don’t mean to be disrespectful to you, since you’ve asked a good question, but I didn’t value reading it enough to go back and identify which parts over reached. If you a pressing enough reason, I can reconsider. Alternatively, just check out some of the original papers and see what you think yourself. Edit 1: I might add, that there are alternative ways of taking the outside view. Amongst them is setting accuracy oriented goals to counter emotionally motivated reasoning