FWIW, I don’t think Bob’s “I am uncertain about the probability” is the most plausible motivation for ranges of probabilities. (I think it’s pretty confusing for people to report ranges for this purpose, without being explicit about what the endpoints represent.)
The most plausible motivation is: “You have no reason to favor one precise probability over various others in the range. Whether you’d pick one when forced to bet is beside the point, because that doesn’t tell you what the reason is to pick one over another.” What do you think of the intuition pump in this post?
FWIW, I don’t think Bob’s “I am uncertain about the probability” is the most plausible motivation for ranges of probabilities. (I think it’s pretty confusing for people to report ranges for this purpose, without being explicit about what the endpoints represent.)
The most plausible motivation is: “You have no reason to favor one precise probability over various others in the range. Whether you’d pick one when forced to bet is beside the point, because that doesn’t tell you what the reason is to pick one over another.” What do you think of the intuition pump in this post?