It’s not enough to just articulate a good idea and provide evidence that it’s good; you also have to do quite a bit of political advertising.
I’m glad Jason is explaining his theory of change in such detail. His points that governance ideas won’t spread automatically, and that we have to earn credibility for pitches to get traction, seem obvious in retrospect. But despite thinking about this topic quite a lot the past six months, I hadn’t fully incorporated this into my model.
In my one LW post to-date, I explained Milton Friedman’s theory of policy change, that “Only a crisis — actual or perceived — produces real change”. While I don’t think that’s the only way policy can significantly change, I believe it’s the main way that outside the Overton Window policy ideas become possible. To effectively use this theory, a community need only: make novel, accurate, and unpopular predictions about future political shocks, have a coherent model of the world that explains that shock, and at a crucial moment hand a binder to surprised and confused policymakers. If all goes well, they’ll be grateful for the suggestions and good policy ideas will promptly sail through Congress and rule-making agencies. That’s just three things, easy.
Coca-Cola famously spends massive amounts on advertising, but very little of it has an immediate, measurable impact. Coca-Cola doesn’t typically ask you to click on banner ads, to sign up for a subscription service, or to CALL NOW. Their advertising is trying to make sure that when you’re thirsty, later, you remember their brand, have positive associations, and will prefer their products over similar alternatives. This is basic Brand Awareness Advertising, and it works well when you can credibly predict that a decision will need to be made at some point, but not necessarily when, where, or the precise scenario in which it will be made.
Jason makes an excellent point, that should have been obvious, that when the next policy window opens, this community won’t be the only one claiming credit for the prediction. This community won’t be the only one offering a binder of policy fixes to confused and grateful policymakers. We need to do much more to prepare for that eventuality.
I’m glad Jason is explaining his theory of change in such detail. His points that governance ideas won’t spread automatically, and that we have to earn credibility for pitches to get traction, seem obvious in retrospect. But despite thinking about this topic quite a lot the past six months, I hadn’t fully incorporated this into my model.
In my one LW post to-date, I explained Milton Friedman’s theory of policy change, that “Only a crisis — actual or perceived — produces real change”. While I don’t think that’s the only way policy can significantly change, I believe it’s the main way that outside the Overton Window policy ideas become possible. To effectively use this theory, a community need only: make novel, accurate, and unpopular predictions about future political shocks, have a coherent model of the world that explains that shock, and at a crucial moment hand a binder to surprised and confused policymakers. If all goes well, they’ll be grateful for the suggestions and good policy ideas will promptly sail through Congress and rule-making agencies. That’s just three things, easy.
Coca-Cola famously spends massive amounts on advertising, but very little of it has an immediate, measurable impact. Coca-Cola doesn’t typically ask you to click on banner ads, to sign up for a subscription service, or to CALL NOW. Their advertising is trying to make sure that when you’re thirsty, later, you remember their brand, have positive associations, and will prefer their products over similar alternatives. This is basic Brand Awareness Advertising, and it works well when you can credibly predict that a decision will need to be made at some point, but not necessarily when, where, or the precise scenario in which it will be made.
Jason makes an excellent point, that should have been obvious, that when the next policy window opens, this community won’t be the only one claiming credit for the prediction. This community won’t be the only one offering a binder of policy fixes to confused and grateful policymakers. We need to do much more to prepare for that eventuality.