However, relying solely on expected utility seems to make you vulnerable to a dilemma very similar to Pascal’s Mugging.
I disagree. It took me a long time to figure out why I wouldn’t take Pascal’s Mugging, but I eventually did: Rule utilitarianism. If you generalize the rule “pay off Pascal’s mugger” it becomes clear that anyone who recognizes that you operate this way will be able to abuse you—clearly a rule where you accept the mugging has negative consequences for society, because if everyone operated that way, it would lead to a complete collapse of society. Simply put, a society where people accept the mugging is not sustainable.
But this situation is different. Generalizing the rule will not lead to the destruction of societal order, and I think the rational choice is to take the 0.0001% (or whatever it was) chance of $27 billion.
If you think “don’t pay off Pascal’s Muggers” is a rule to follow in rule utilitarianism, then you think it’s a rule that maximizes utility, and therefore you’ve already found a reason why paying off Pascal’s Muggers is bad utility before even considering rule utilitarianism. Therefore, I don’t think “it’s a rule in my rule utilitarianism to not do this” is your true rejection to Pascal’s Mugging.
I disagree. It took me a long time to figure out why I wouldn’t take Pascal’s Mugging, but I eventually did: Rule utilitarianism. If you generalize the rule “pay off Pascal’s mugger” it becomes clear that anyone who recognizes that you operate this way will be able to abuse you—clearly a rule where you accept the mugging has negative consequences for society, because if everyone operated that way, it would lead to a complete collapse of society. Simply put, a society where people accept the mugging is not sustainable.
But this situation is different. Generalizing the rule will not lead to the destruction of societal order, and I think the rational choice is to take the 0.0001% (or whatever it was) chance of $27 billion.
If you think “don’t pay off Pascal’s Muggers” is a rule to follow in rule utilitarianism, then you think it’s a rule that maximizes utility, and therefore you’ve already found a reason why paying off Pascal’s Muggers is bad utility before even considering rule utilitarianism. Therefore, I don’t think “it’s a rule in my rule utilitarianism to not do this” is your true rejection to Pascal’s Mugging.