And if your answer is that your utility for money is not linear, check to see if that’s your real rejection. What would you do if you would donate the money? What would you do if you were in the least convenient possible world where your utility function for money is linear?
I am fairly confident that is my true rejection, considering that my utility is not even remotely close to linear with money on those scales. My intuitions regarding sets one and two are demonstrate certainty bias, but I can acknowledge it as irrational. I give my intuitions a rationality stamp of approval for their successful analysis of set four. The most similar mind to mine that has linear utility with money is not very similar to me at all (I’d imagine it bares more resemblance to Clippy), so I won’t speak for it as “I”, but I assume that it would take option 2.
Edit: It is conceivable that I could find myself in a situation in which I had a better use for a 10^-6 chance of getting $27 billion than a guaranteed $24000. If I was in such a situation and realized it, I would choose option 2.
I am fairly confident that is my true rejection, considering that my utility is not even remotely close to linear with money on those scales. My intuitions regarding sets one and two are demonstrate certainty bias, but I can acknowledge it as irrational. I give my intuitions a rationality stamp of approval for their successful analysis of set four. The most similar mind to mine that has linear utility with money is not very similar to me at all (I’d imagine it bares more resemblance to Clippy), so I won’t speak for it as “I”, but I assume that it would take option 2.
Edit: It is conceivable that I could find myself in a situation in which I had a better use for a 10^-6 chance of getting $27 billion than a guaranteed $24000. If I was in such a situation and realized it, I would choose option 2.