One question is whether AI is like CFCs, or like CO2, or like hacking.
With CFCs, the solution was simple: ban CFCs. The cost was relatively low, and the benefit relatively high.
With CO2, the solution is equally simple: cap and trade. It’s just not politically palatable, because the problem is slower-moving, and the cost would be much, much greater (perhaps great enough to really mess up the world economy). So, we’re left with the second-best solution: do nothing. People will die, but the economy will keep growing, which might balance that out, because a larger economy can feed more people and produce better technology.
With hacking, we know it’s a problem and we are highly motivated to solve it, but we just don’t know how. You can take every recommendation that Bruce Schneier makes, and still get hacked. The US military gets hacked. The Australian intelligence agency gets hacked. Swiss banks get hacked. And it doesn’t seem to be getting better, even though we keep trying.
Banning AI research (once it becomes clear that RSI is possible) would have the same problem as banning CO2. And it might also have the same problems as hacking: how do you stop people from writing code?
One question is whether AI is like CFCs, or like CO2, or like hacking.
With CFCs, the solution was simple: ban CFCs. The cost was relatively low, and the benefit relatively high.
With CO2, the solution is equally simple: cap and trade. It’s just not politically palatable, because the problem is slower-moving, and the cost would be much, much greater (perhaps great enough to really mess up the world economy). So, we’re left with the second-best solution: do nothing. People will die, but the economy will keep growing, which might balance that out, because a larger economy can feed more people and produce better technology.
With hacking, we know it’s a problem and we are highly motivated to solve it, but we just don’t know how. You can take every recommendation that Bruce Schneier makes, and still get hacked. The US military gets hacked. The Australian intelligence agency gets hacked. Swiss banks get hacked. And it doesn’t seem to be getting better, even though we keep trying.
Banning AI research (once it becomes clear that RSI is possible) would have the same problem as banning CO2. And it might also have the same problems as hacking: how do you stop people from writing code?