Suffice it to say, a large advantage in AI capabilities would allow its creator, or the rogue AI, to perform an extremely low-cost, low-risk takeover of all other countries and actors in the world.
A simple “large advantage” is not enough to get low-cost low-risk takeover. I think most people would say that frontier models have a large advantage over open weight ones (eg. Claude Mythos compared to Kimi K2.6), but keeping this gap into the future would not allow the US to low-cost low-risk take over China.
What advantage would you need? I’d surmise AGI/ASI with at least a year ahead of anyone else. You’d probably need to cripple others without detection (otherwise face retaliation), and still pay a high cost of developping physical infrastructure to operate such takeoevers (Drones&robots).
A simple “large advantage” is not enough to get low-cost low-risk takeover. I think most people would say that frontier models have a large advantage over open weight ones (eg. Claude Mythos compared to Kimi K2.6), but keeping this gap into the future would not allow the US to low-cost low-risk take over China.
What advantage would you need? I’d surmise AGI/ASI with at least a year ahead of anyone else. You’d probably need to cripple others without detection (otherwise face retaliation), and still pay a high cost of developping physical infrastructure to operate such takeoevers (Drones&robots).