50% chance of killing everyone (almost) isn’t a thing. it either preserves ~all of humanity or none; there is almost no middle ground.
To take a stupid example, one could imagine that the deep neural network initialization has a random seed, and for half of possible seeds, the AGI preserves all of humanity, and for the other half of seeds, it preserves none of humanity.
To take a stupid example, one could imagine that the deep neural network initialization has a random seed, and for half of possible seeds, the AGI preserves all of humanity, and for the other half of seeds, it preserves none of humanity.