I am a US citizen who opposes Trump. I follow the political situation closely and I would consider my threat-level to be low to very low. Why do you think the threat-level is medium?
I’m guessing you think “I’m a citizen. I don’t break laws. I’m not in a directly targeted group. I’m low risk.”
You might be thinking about risk as binary—either you’re targeted for arrest/elimination, or you’re safe. The thesis isn’t “you might get swept up.” The thesis is: “The ‘medium risk’ assessment is based on the principle of ‘authoritarian creep.’” The tools and tactics normalized against one group (immigrants, protesters) invariably get turned against the next, less-popular group.
Disclaimer: This comment is AI-written but human-composed. I spent over an hour thinking about your question, articulating my views, dialoguing with the AI, fact-checking its claims, and adding new content. It’d be a big pain to rewrite everything myself and I want to finish up thinking about this for now, so posting as-is.
Authoritarian regimes exert control in two ways:
Targeted threat against actively persecuted groups (you aren’t here yet), or
Widespread fear against all who disagree with the regime (you absolutely belong to this).
You say you oppose Trump and follow politics closely. That means you have political awareness and opposition. Under ambient fear tactics, you don’t need to be individually hunted down—you just need to know that your legal status won’t protect you if you’re inconvenient.
The infrastructure for widespread fear already exists
And how hard would it be for ICE to flip an entry in a database?
ICE officials have told us that an apparent biometric match by Mobile Fortify is a ‘definitive’ determination of a person’s status and that an ICE officer may ignore evidence of American citizenship—including a birth certificate—if the app says the person is an alien.
—Ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee Bennie G. Thompson (D.-Miss.)
ICE ignoring court orders in Chicago shows contempt for the judiciary. The Congressional blockade shows a contempt for the legislature. This creates an unchecked executive. An unchecked executive means all citizens have a higher risk profile, because the legal systems designed to protect you have been proven to be ignorable.
As Bruce Schneier notes: “If ICE targets only people it can go after legally, then everyone knows whether or not they need to fear ICE. If ICE occasionally makes mistakes by arresting Americans and deporting innocents, then everyone has to fear it. This is by design.”
You’re meant to be chilled. Maybe you won’t be put in a camp. Maybe you’ll never be arrested. But maybe:
You’ll lose your job for expressing political views online
You’ll face legal harassment even if charges are eventually dropped
You’ll self-censor because you know opposition has consequences
This is what 1950′s McCarthyism looked like—most people weren’t jailed, but thousands lost jobs, were blacklisted, had their lives destroyed. The threat didn’t need to be execution; it just needed to be real enough to make people shut up.
Medium risk means: You probably won’t be individually hunted down. But you absolutely could face consequences—detention, job loss, legal harassment, having to lawyer up even for bullshit charges—for being a visible Trump opponent. The goal isn’t necessarily to arrest you. The goal is to make you wonder if sending that frustrated text message, or writing that Google Docs comment, or making that donation will put you on a list. The goal is to make you self-censor.
You’re politically aware enough to understand what’s happening. You openly oppose Trump. The system has demonstrated it will ignore your legal protections when convenient. That’s not low risk, that’s medium risk—the infrastructure exists to grab you if you’re inconvenient, and your citizenship won’t stop them.
I don’t know if it’ll get to camps. I don’t know if it’ll get to purges. But I know the ambient fear infrastructure is already functioning, and you’re in the category of people it’s designed to intimidate.
That’s why I recommend taking precautions now, as listed in the article.
I read this as government actions will be taken to persecute me and/or government actions will be taken to make me afraid. I only care about the first category. Whether or not I’m afraid is entirely within my power. I could be actively persecuted and still choose to not be afraid.
That link description is misleading. That article does not claim that. The article states that they found 170 citizens that have been factually detained by ICE. ICE may detain US citizens without a warrant for searches and arrests if conditions are met (see Powers without warrant section a4 and a5 as well as Searches without warrant). If you hit an ICE agent then they may detain you. Some people in that article were wrongfully detained but 170 is not the number.
That is misleading. He was not arrested under suspicion of being an illegal alien so the ID part is irrelevant. ICE was in the process of clearing a protest. He may have been detained for BS reasons but its still important to distinguish between arresting someone under suspicion of being an illegal alien and other suspicions.
And how hard would it be for ICE to flip an entry in a database?
I wish you were more specific here. It could actually be pretty hard for ICE to flip an entry in a database depending on the database we’re talking about. Mobile Fortify draws from several databases and I don’t think ICE has overwrite access to any of them.
ICE officials have told us that an apparent biometric match by Mobile Fortify is a ‘definitive’ determination of a person’s status and that an ICE officer may ignore evidence of American citizenship—including a birth certificate—if the app says the person is an alien.
—Ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee Bennie G. Thompson (D.-Miss.)
If this claim is true then there would be direct evidence of that happening. There should be no need to rely on word of mouth. From what I’ve read they only run the app when a suspect does not provide an ID.
I won’t go over everything. I agree with the fact that checks on the executive are under attack.
A chilling effect may be the intention but its not the reality. The No Kings Protest on October 18th may have been the largest protest since 1970. There were at least 5 million people in it. I have a lot of uncertainty about the future but the environment is not breeding a lot of docility or much of any of the psychological conditions necessary for a successful authoritarian.
That is misleading. He was not arrested under suspicion of being an illegal alien so the ID part is irrelevant. ICE was in the process of clearing a protest.
On further reflection, I think it’s more accurate to say “DHS later claimed he was not arrested under suspicion of being an illegal alien” while noting DHS has lied in similar situations. The agents refused to tell George why they were arresting him. He tried to get them to check his car for citizenship proof but they refused. So I don’t think my original quote is misleading in any substantial way — George looks Hispanic, they wouldn’t say why they were arresting him, he had ID but they wouldn’t go check. DHS later claims the arrest was for protest reasons.
That is misleading. He was not arrested under suspicion of being an illegal alien so the ID part is irrelevant.
EDIT: Actually, this is correct. I kept reading and found specific information supporting your point. Thanks!
I think the reason this is salient is, DHS only claimed after the fact that they arrested him for assault. At the time he wasn’t given info, so he remarked “wtf my ID was right there, why am I being arrested when I can prove citizenship?”.
Mobile Fortify draws from several databases and I don’t think ICE has overwrite access to any of them.
ICE goes around laws to draw extra data all the time (though that’s read access, not write). Nominal access controls are not being respected right now (though that doesn’t mean every single control is being violated). You can also look at DOGE / social security data, etc.
ICE officials have told us that an apparent biometric match by Mobile Fortify is a ‘definitive’ determination of a person’s status and that an ICE officer may ignore evidence of American citizenship—including a birth certificate—if the app says the person is an alien.
—Ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee Bennie G. Thompson (D.-Miss.)
If this claim is true then there would be direct evidence of that happening. There should be no need to rely on word of mouth.
I don’t think it’s reasonable to call this word-of-mouth. My comment provided credible evidence that ICE officials made this claim. Maybe it isn’t widespread yet, and maybe it won’t end up happening, but you’re downplaying the chance this happens and overestimating the care ICE demonstrates towards citizens. See also the planned denaturalization quota of 100–200/month in 2026
A chilling effect may be the intention but its not the reality.
I can tell you that quite a few of my friends (my target demographic for this article!) already report their speech being chilled. It’s happening, at least for some groups I care about. Large protests are not strong counterevidence.
I recently talked to a lawyer filing habeas corpus petitions and yeah ICE just doesn’t give a shit about valid documentation or people in general. I figured these were isolated incidences amplified by a motivated media but it is just a dehumanizing operation in general and a danger to many groups.
I am a US citizen who opposes Trump. I follow the political situation closely and I would consider my threat-level to be low to very low. Why do you think the threat-level is medium?
btw I appreciate the privacy guide.
I’m guessing you think “I’m a citizen. I don’t break laws. I’m not in a directly targeted group. I’m low risk.”
You might be thinking about risk as binary—either you’re targeted for arrest/elimination, or you’re safe. The thesis isn’t “you might get swept up.” The thesis is: “The ‘medium risk’ assessment is based on the principle of ‘authoritarian creep.’” The tools and tactics normalized against one group (immigrants, protesters) invariably get turned against the next, less-popular group.
Disclaimer: This comment is AI-written but human-composed. I spent over an hour thinking about your question, articulating my views, dialoguing with the AI, fact-checking its claims, and adding new content. It’d be a big pain to rewrite everything myself and I want to finish up thinking about this for now, so posting as-is.
Authoritarian regimes exert control in two ways:
Targeted threat against actively persecuted groups (you aren’t here yet), or
Widespread fear against all who disagree with the regime (you absolutely belong to this).
You say you oppose Trump and follow politics closely. That means you have political awareness and opposition. Under ambient fear tactics, you don’t need to be individually hunted down—you just need to know that your legal status won’t protect you if you’re inconvenient.
The infrastructure for widespread fear already exists
Citizen status doesn’t ensure protection
Over 170 US citizens have been wrongly detained by ICE, including George Retes, an Iraq war veteran, who spent three days in jail with pepper spray burns, unable to make a phone call or speak to a lawyer. He wasn’t charged with anything . He was just released with no explanation.
And how hard would it be for ICE to flip an entry in a database?
Court orders don’t ensure protection
Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act to override judicial rulings. In Chicago, ICE continues to tear gas protestors and not wear identification in violation of a court order.
Congressional oversight doesn’t ensure protection
Twelve Democratic members of Congress filed a lawsuit after being denied entry to detention facilities in violation of federal law explicitly granting Congress the right to conduct unannounced inspections. Rep. LaMonica McIver was charged with “assaulting law enforcement” for trying to enter—charges she calls “purely political.”
Why this matters for you
ICE ignoring court orders in Chicago shows contempt for the judiciary. The Congressional blockade shows a contempt for the legislature. This creates an unchecked executive. An unchecked executive means all citizens have a higher risk profile, because the legal systems designed to protect you have been proven to be ignorable.
As Bruce Schneier notes: “If ICE targets only people it can go after legally, then everyone knows whether or not they need to fear ICE. If ICE occasionally makes mistakes by arresting Americans and deporting innocents, then everyone has to fear it. This is by design.”
You’re meant to be chilled. Maybe you won’t be put in a camp. Maybe you’ll never be arrested. But maybe:
You’ll lose your job for expressing political views online
You’ll face legal harassment even if charges are eventually dropped
You’ll self-censor because you know opposition has consequences
This is what 1950′s McCarthyism looked like—most people weren’t jailed, but thousands lost jobs, were blacklisted, had their lives destroyed. The threat didn’t need to be execution; it just needed to be real enough to make people shut up.
Medium risk means: You probably won’t be individually hunted down. But you absolutely could face consequences—detention, job loss, legal harassment, having to lawyer up even for bullshit charges—for being a visible Trump opponent. The goal isn’t necessarily to arrest you. The goal is to make you wonder if sending that frustrated text message, or writing that Google Docs comment, or making that donation will put you on a list. The goal is to make you self-censor.
You’re politically aware enough to understand what’s happening. You openly oppose Trump. The system has demonstrated it will ignore your legal protections when convenient. That’s not low risk, that’s medium risk—the infrastructure exists to grab you if you’re inconvenient, and your citizenship won’t stop them.
I don’t know if it’ll get to camps. I don’t know if it’ll get to purges. But I know the ambient fear infrastructure is already functioning, and you’re in the category of people it’s designed to intimidate.
That’s why I recommend taking precautions now, as listed in the article.
I read this as government actions will be taken to persecute me and/or government actions will be taken to make me afraid. I only care about the first category. Whether or not I’m afraid is entirely within my power. I could be actively persecuted and still choose to not be afraid.
News is really bad right now and LLMs don’t help.
That link description is misleading. That article does not claim that. The article states that they found 170 citizens that have been factually detained by ICE. ICE may detain US citizens without a warrant for searches and arrests if conditions are met (see Powers without warrant section a4 and a5 as well as Searches without warrant). If you hit an ICE agent then they may detain you. Some people in that article were wrongfully detained but 170 is not the number.
That is misleading. He was not arrested under suspicion of being an illegal alien so the ID part is irrelevant. ICE was in the process of clearing a protest. He may have been detained for BS reasons but its still important to distinguish between arresting someone under suspicion of being an illegal alien and other suspicions.
I wish you were more specific here. It could actually be pretty hard for ICE to flip an entry in a database depending on the database we’re talking about. Mobile Fortify draws from several databases and I don’t think ICE has overwrite access to any of them.
If this claim is true then there would be direct evidence of that happening. There should be no need to rely on word of mouth. From what I’ve read they only run the app when a suspect does not provide an ID.
I won’t go over everything. I agree with the fact that checks on the executive are under attack.
A chilling effect may be the intention but its not the reality.
The No Kings Protest on October 18th may have been the largest protest since 1970. There were at least 5 million people in it. I have a lot of uncertainty about the future but the environment is not breeding a lot of docility or much of any of the psychological conditions necessary for a successful authoritarian.
On further reflection, I think it’s more accurate to say “DHS later claimed he was not arrested under suspicion of being an illegal alien” while noting DHS has lied in similar situations. The agents refused to tell George why they were arresting him. He tried to get them to check his car for citizenship proof but they refused. So I don’t think my original quote is misleading in any substantial way — George looks Hispanic, they wouldn’t say why they were arresting him, he had ID but they wouldn’t go check. DHS later claims the arrest was for protest reasons.
I disagree with much of what you wrote.
EDIT: Actually, this is correct. I kept reading and found specific information supporting your point. Thanks!
I think the reason this is salient is, DHS only claimed after the fact that they arrested him for assault. At the time he wasn’t given info, so he remarked “wtf my ID was right there, why am I being arrested when I can prove citizenship?”.
ICE goes around laws to draw extra data all the time (though that’s read access, not write). Nominal access controls are not being respected right now (though that doesn’t mean every single control is being violated). You can also look at DOGE / social security data, etc.
I don’t think it’s reasonable to call this word-of-mouth. My comment provided credible evidence that ICE officials made this claim. Maybe it isn’t widespread yet, and maybe it won’t end up happening, but you’re downplaying the chance this happens and overestimating the care ICE demonstrates towards citizens. See also the planned denaturalization quota of 100–200/month in 2026
I can tell you that quite a few of my friends (my target demographic for this article!) already report their speech being chilled. It’s happening, at least for some groups I care about. Large protests are not strong counterevidence.
I agree with you. Things are pretty bad.
I recently talked to a lawyer filing habeas corpus petitions and yeah ICE just doesn’t give a shit about valid documentation or people in general. I figured these were isolated incidences amplified by a motivated media but it is just a dehumanizing operation in general and a danger to many groups.