I concede that you’re getting screwed over by the multi-verse at that point, but there’s got to be some accounting for ratio. There is no way that you should be equally confident in your guess regardless of if you receive ratios of 5:1, 10:6, 104:100, or 1000004:1000000.
Yeah, that’s why I added “(in that context)”—i.e. we are 100% sure that those two hypotheses are the only one. If there’s even a 0.01% chance that the distribution could be 50% / 50% (as is likely in the real world), then that hypothesis is going to become way more likely.
Yeah, that’s why I added “(in that context)”—i.e. we are 100% sure that those two hypotheses are the only one. If there’s even a 0.01% chance that the distribution could be 50% / 50% (as is likely in the real world), then that hypothesis is going to become way more likely.