What are you trying to find by taking the product of these probabilities? They are not independent, so I think you meant to use probabilities that are conditional upon each other. For example, to find the probability of their conjunction, we would need
%20=%20P(A)%20\times%20P(B%20\mid%20A)%20\times%20P(C\mid%20B%20\cap%20A)) instead. 10^-7 seems a bit low for this.
Yeah, as I said to jsalvatier, it may well be that my estimate was too confident, and of course you’re quite right that I should have explicitly used conditional probabilities. We’re still dealing with someone who we can label a crackpot with only a trivial chance of being wrong.
What are you trying to find by taking the product of these probabilities? They are not independent, so I think you meant to use probabilities that are conditional upon each other. For example, to find the probability of their conjunction, we would need
%20=%20P(A)%20\times%20P(B%20\mid%20A)%20\times%20P(C\mid%20B%20\cap%20A))instead. 10^-7 seems a bit low for this.
That quote is great. :D
Yeah, as I said to jsalvatier, it may well be that my estimate was too confident, and of course you’re quite right that I should have explicitly used conditional probabilities. We’re still dealing with someone who we can label a crackpot with only a trivial chance of being wrong.