Bad neural nets worked okay under the training set. With a distributional shift, you could see the weaknesses of their models.
I think most beliefs are the mode of what a person hears. You ask me whether someone is for or against abortion, I’ll ask you what their parents and friends believe, then I’ll bet on the most common belief within that group. So when “the Earth is flat” enters the conversation, and people’s reason for believing the Earth isn’t flat is basically “It’s the only statement I’ve heard on the topic”, they might not have a robust way to determine what is true. Most people can’t state necessary conditions for evolution in an arbitrary system. I’d wager most people who believe in evolution can’t explain why monkeys still exist.
So when the rug of apparent consensus is pulled out from under the feet of everyone, quite a few will fall over.
Bad neural nets worked okay under the training set. With a distributional shift, you could see the weaknesses of their models.
I think most beliefs are the mode of what a person hears. You ask me whether someone is for or against abortion, I’ll ask you what their parents and friends believe, then I’ll bet on the most common belief within that group. So when “the Earth is flat” enters the conversation, and people’s reason for believing the Earth isn’t flat is basically “It’s the only statement I’ve heard on the topic”, they might not have a robust way to determine what is true. Most people can’t state necessary conditions for evolution in an arbitrary system. I’d wager most people who believe in evolution can’t explain why monkeys still exist.
So when the rug of apparent consensus is pulled out from under the feet of everyone, quite a few will fall over.