I think your forecasting has been absolutely stellar, but surely you can do a forecast on how likely this wishlist scenario is, and would arrive at a number too low to even seem worth thinking about it, no? Even imagining the ultrarational US administration required should be too low to think about, let alone when you add all of the rest.
It seems like even a super basic ‘We use all the might we can gather to convince one by one all the biggest actors seperately to delay and put more into Safety, and do lesser more plausible regulations that incentivize using more of their compute towards Safety in a way all labs benefit from’ or some slightly improved version looks significantly more plausible, no? (still not very plausible, maybe not as pie in the sky at least but still pie in the troposphere).
Or better yet, is there by any chance a realistic plan that you are about to follow-up AI 2040 with?
Edit: I guess you’ve already outlined your Plan B and it’s already ‘Fight China’..
I think your forecasting has been absolutely stellar, but surely you can do a forecast on how likely this wishlist scenario is, and would arrive at a number too low to even seem worth thinking about it, no? Even imagining the ultrarational US administration required should be too low to think about, let alone when you add all of the rest.
It seems like even a super basic ‘We use all the might we can gather to convince one by one all the biggest actors seperately to delay and put more into Safety, and do lesser more plausible regulations that incentivize using more of their compute towards Safety in a way all labs benefit from’ or some slightly improved version looks significantly more plausible, no? (still not very plausible, maybe not as pie in the sky at least but still pie in the troposphere).
Or better yet, is there by any chance a realistic plan that you are about to follow-up AI 2040 with?
Edit: I guess you’ve already outlined your Plan B and it’s already ‘Fight China’..