the “divergence between capabilities and impacts’ we observe, with specific reference to AI2027 predictions for example, seems to be that AI has turned out to be better aligned than we expected. Even with the rise of ~superhuman coder level AI, we’ve seen virtually no ill effects so far (a small uptick in crypto and ransomware attacks aside).
I think progress in alignment research has not been adequately used to update your priors on RSI being most likely misaligned.
the “divergence between capabilities and impacts’ we observe, with specific reference to AI2027 predictions for example, seems to be that AI has turned out to be better aligned than we expected. Even with the rise of ~superhuman coder level AI, we’ve seen virtually no ill effects so far (a small uptick in crypto and ransomware attacks aside).
I think progress in alignment research has not been adequately used to update your priors on RSI being most likely misaligned.