I think that’s just downstream of a mistake people made where they underestimated how easy it would be to build somewhat narrow systems that solve these sorts of small-horizon natural language problems
But the systems that are saturating IMO math, MMLU, etc, are not very narrow in the sense that people would have used the term a decade or two ago. So you can think about their mistake as the inability to imagine systems which have become much less narrow (to the extent that a single system can saturate almost all language and vision benchmarks from a decade ago) but are still far away from taking over the world. Then the question is: why not expect the same to happen over the next decade?
But the systems that are saturating IMO math, MMLU, etc, are not very narrow in the sense that people would have used the term a decade or two ago. So you can think about their mistake as the inability to imagine systems which have become much less narrow (to the extent that a single system can saturate almost all language and vision benchmarks from a decade ago) but are still far away from taking over the world. Then the question is: why not expect the same to happen over the next decade?