I am not looking out my window for the nano-swarms; I think there’s a less than 1% chance of that happening this year. We would need a completely new AI paradigm I think, which is not impossible (It’s happened a bunch of times in the past, and there are a few ideas floating around that could be it) but unlikely and especially unlikely to happen all of a sudden without me hearing signs first. And then even with said new paradigm it would be surprising if takeoff was so fast that I saw nanobots before hearing any disturbing news through the grapevine.
So, <1% chance of nano-swarms surprising me this year, <<1% this week.
Maybe something like 2% chance of agentic AGI (or, APS-AI to use Carlsmith’s term) happening this year?
I am not looking out my window for the nano-swarms; I think there’s a less than 1% chance of that happening this year. We would need a completely new AI paradigm I think, which is not impossible (It’s happened a bunch of times in the past, and there are a few ideas floating around that could be it) but unlikely and especially unlikely to happen all of a sudden without me hearing signs first. And then even with said new paradigm it would be surprising if takeoff was so fast that I saw nanobots before hearing any disturbing news through the grapevine.
So, <1% chance of nano-swarms surprising me this year, <<1% this week.
Maybe something like 2% chance of agentic AGI (or, APS-AI to use Carlsmith’s term) happening this year?
Fair argument, thanks.