Worse than that, the relationship between “actually solving alignment” and “predicting revival” is very weak. The most obvious flaw is that they might succeed in reviving the Preserved, but without having developed aligned AGI. Being careful, they don’t develop unaligned AGI either. This scenario could easily account for almost all of the 97% assessed probability of successfully revivals.
There are other flaws as well, any of which would be consistent with <1% chance of ever solving alignment.
Given the sheer complexity of the human brain, it seems very unlikely anyone could possibly assess a 97% probability of revival without conditioning on AI of some strong form, if not a full AGI.
It seems very unlikely that anyone could credibly assess a 97% probability of revival for the majority at all, if they haven’t already successfully carried it out at least a few times. Even a fully aligned strongly superhuman AGI may well say “nope, they’re gone” and provide a process for preservation that works instead of whatever they actually did.
Worse than that, the relationship between “actually solving alignment” and “predicting revival” is very weak. The most obvious flaw is that they might succeed in reviving the Preserved, but without having developed aligned AGI. Being careful, they don’t develop unaligned AGI either. This scenario could easily account for almost all of the 97% assessed probability of successfully revivals.
There are other flaws as well, any of which would be consistent with <1% chance of ever solving alignment.
Given the sheer complexity of the human brain, it seems very unlikely anyone could possibly assess a 97% probability of revival without conditioning on AI of some strong form, if not a full AGI.
It seems very unlikely that anyone could credibly assess a 97% probability of revival for the majority at all, if they haven’t already successfully carried it out at least a few times. Even a fully aligned strongly superhuman AGI may well say “nope, they’re gone” and provide a process for preservation that works instead of whatever they actually did.