A similar calibration game I like to play with my girlfriend: one of us gives our 80% confidence interval for some quantity (eg “how long will it take us to get to the front of this line?”) and the other offers to bet on the inside or the outside, at 4:1 odds.
I’ve learned that my 80% intervals are right like 50% of the time, almost always in favor of being too optimistic...
A similar calibration game I like to play with my girlfriend: one of us gives our 80% confidence interval for some quantity (eg “how long will it take us to get to the front of this line?”) and the other offers to bet on the inside or the outside, at 4:1 odds.
I’ve learned that my 80% intervals are right like 50% of the time, almost always in favor of being too optimistic...