I expect that if you sat down with him and had a one on one conversation, you’d find that he does have nuisances views. I also expect that Eliser realizes that there have been improvements in all of the areas you described. I think that the difference comes mostly down to “Has there been sufficient progress in interpretability to avert disaster?” I’m confident his answer would be “No.”
So, given that belief, and having a chance now and then to communicate with a wide audience, it is better to have a clear message, because you never know what will be a zeitgeist tipping point. It’s the fate of the world, so a little nuisance is just collateral damage.
I don’t know if that matters, because whether he’s pegged to Doom epistemically or strategically the result is the same.
I expect that if you sat down with him and had a one on one conversation, you’d find that he does have nuisances views. I also expect that Eliser realizes that there have been improvements in all of the areas you described. I think that the difference comes mostly down to “Has there been sufficient progress in interpretability to avert disaster?” I’m confident his answer would be “No.”
So, given that belief, and having a chance now and then to communicate with a wide audience, it is better to have a clear message, because you never know what will be a zeitgeist tipping point. It’s the fate of the world, so a little nuisance is just collateral damage.
I don’t know if that matters, because whether he’s pegged to Doom epistemically or strategically the result is the same.