In real life, you are not ever supposed to have a prior improbability of 10^-100 for some fact distinguished enough to be written down, and yet encounter strong evidence, say 10^10 to 1, that the thing has actually happened.
Sure you do. As you pointed out, dice rolls. The sequence of rolls in a game of Risk
Those aren’t “distinguished enough to be written down” before the game is played. I’ll edit to make this slightly clearer hopefully.
Those aren’t “distinguished enough to be written down” before the game is played. I’ll edit to make this slightly clearer hopefully.