While I also have experienced that GPT-4 can’t solve the more challanging problems I throw at it, I also recognize that most humans probably wouldn’t be able to solve many of those problems either within a reasonable amount of time.
One possibility is that the ability to solve novel problems might follow an S curve. Where it took a long time for AI to become better at novel task than 10% of people, but might go quickly from there to outperform 90%, but then very slowly increase from there.
However, I fail to see why that must neccessarily be true (or false), so if anyone has arguments for/against they are more than welcom.
Lastly I would like to ask the author if they can give an example of a problem such that if solved by AI, they would be worried about “imminent” doom? “new and complex” programming problems is mentioned, so if any such example could be provided it might contribute to discussion.
Interesting read.
While I also have experienced that GPT-4 can’t solve the more challanging problems I throw at it, I also recognize that most humans probably wouldn’t be able to solve many of those problems either within a reasonable amount of time.
One possibility is that the ability to solve novel problems might follow an S curve. Where it took a long time for AI to become better at novel task than 10% of people, but might go quickly from there to outperform 90%, but then very slowly increase from there.
However, I fail to see why that must neccessarily be true (or false), so if anyone has arguments for/against they are more than welcom.
Lastly I would like to ask the author if they can give an example of a problem such that if solved by AI, they would be worried about “imminent” doom? “new and complex” programming problems is mentioned, so if any such example could be provided it might contribute to discussion.