This is a great point. I think this can also lead to cognitive dissonance: if you can predict that doing X will give you a small chance of doing Y, then in some sense it’s already in your choice set and you’ve got the regret. But if you can stick your fingers in your ears enough and pretend that X isn’t possible, then that saves you from the regret.
Possible values of X: moving, starting a company, ending a relationship. Scary big decisions in general.
Something that confused me for a bit: people use regret-minimization to handle exporation-exploitation problems, shouldn’t they have noticed a bias against exploration? I think the answer here is that the “exploration” people usually think about involves taking an already known option to gain more information about it, not actually expanding the choice set. I don’t know of any framework that includes actions that actually change the choice set.
This is a great point. I think this can also lead to cognitive dissonance: if you can predict that doing X will give you a small chance of doing Y, then in some sense it’s already in your choice set and you’ve got the regret. But if you can stick your fingers in your ears enough and pretend that X isn’t possible, then that saves you from the regret.
Possible values of X: moving, starting a company, ending a relationship. Scary big decisions in general.
Something that confused me for a bit: people use regret-minimization to handle exporation-exploitation problems, shouldn’t they have noticed a bias against exploration? I think the answer here is that the “exploration” people usually think about involves taking an already known option to gain more information about it, not actually expanding the choice set. I don’t know of any framework that includes actions that actually change the choice set.