I don’t think I make the claim that a DSA is likely to be achieved by a human faction before AI takeover happens. My modal prediction (~58% as written in the post) for this whole process is that the AI takes over while the nations are trying to beat each other (or failing to coordinate).
In the world where the leading project has a large secret lead and has solved superalignment (an unlikely intersection) then yes, I think a DSA is achievable.
Maybe a thing you’re claiming is that my opening paragraphs don’t emphasize AI takeover enough to properly convey my expectations of AI takeover. I’m pretty sympathetic to this point.
Thanks. It does seem like the conditional here was assumed, and there was some illusion of transparency. The way it read was that you viewed this type of geopolitical singularity as the default future, which seemed like a huge jump, as I mentioned.
I don’t think I make the claim that a DSA is likely to be achieved by a human faction before AI takeover happens. My modal prediction (~58% as written in the post) for this whole process is that the AI takes over while the nations are trying to beat each other (or failing to coordinate).
In the world where the leading project has a large secret lead and has solved superalignment (an unlikely intersection) then yes, I think a DSA is achievable.
Maybe a thing you’re claiming is that my opening paragraphs don’t emphasize AI takeover enough to properly convey my expectations of AI takeover. I’m pretty sympathetic to this point.
Thanks. It does seem like the conditional here was assumed, and there was some illusion of transparency. The way it read was that you viewed this type of geopolitical singularity as the default future, which seemed like a huge jump, as I mentioned.