What’s your prior probability that someone reading this thread (during, say, October 2009) has committed or will commit rape or sexual assault within ten years?
The second, that you think “more accurate, for this tiny corner of cyberspace” is the dangerous one
I think you are being extremely judgmental. I described my hypothetical character as “misunderstood”, and indeed, here you are misunderstanding him. He’s not dangerous; you can add that to the description: “shy, misunderstood, non-dangerous...” The fact that he “would never dream of saying such a thing except anonymously in an unusually open-minded online community” was intended to illustrate his kindness and sensitivity as a human being in contrast to the boorish brute I placed him in opposition to.
What’s your prior probability that someone reading this thread (during, say, October 2009) has committed or will commit rape or sexual assault within ten years?
And if it’s different from the probability for a randomly selected person, then why? (We should restrict selection to adult males, in both cases, for a fair comparison.) komponisto, you’ve said you think the fact someone is an LW participant reduces the probability he has or will rape. Why? Are there statistics negatively correlating rapes with IQ or something else relevant? (Not that I know, but I haven’t checked thoroughly.)
As for your misunderstood character. What does he mean when he says women owe more sex to men? What does owing mean for a class, unless there are individuals who can be said to owe?
Are there statistics negatively correlating rapes with IQ or something else relevant? (Not that I know, but I haven’t checked thoroughly.)
There are negative correlations between violent crime and IQ, and also positive ones between IQ and self-control, as well as any number of other relevant factors (being well-off, for example). I’d look up some citations for you, but really, those correlations are what you would expect and are easy to find.
(To play the devil’s advocate, we could postulate that perhaps only bright male maladjusted losers post here, and the latter 2 attributes outweigh the former 2.)
I know the correlations with violent crime in general exist. We should still check the correlation for sexual assault in particular, because I don’t know how different it may be from crime in general.
Playing devil’s advocate, we assume here that some sexual assault is driven by feelings of entitlement, and rich, powerful, intelligent males tend to feel more entitled than average (and society supports those feelings in them). The powerful boss sexually assaulting his female secretary is practically a stereotype.
What’s your prior probability that someone reading this thread (during, say, October 2009) has committed or will commit rape or sexual assault within ten years?
I haven’t the slightest idea. I also have no reason to think that it is higher, lower, or the same as the number for the members of a similarly sized SF convention, trainspotters club, or firm of chartered accountants.
I think you are being extremely judgmental.
You bet I am.
I described my hypothetical character as “misunderstood”, and indeed, here you are misunderstanding him. He’s not dangerous; you can add that to the description: “shy, misunderstood, non-dangerous...”
The fact that he “would never dream of saying such a thing except anonymously in an unusually open-minded online community” was intended to illustrate his kindness and sensitivity as a human being in contrast to the boorish brute I placed him in opposition to.
He thinks women owe him sex, but is “kind and sensitive” enough not to say so. I seem to feel another judgement coming on.
This imaginary geek: let us suppose he is twenty. One day he will be thirty. Fifty. Eighty, which by then may not be forty, and perhaps he can expect another half century more. Imagine for me this geek in the prime of life at eighty. What has he done in the last sixty years? Is he still whining about not getting any?
I consider your attitude dangerous. Judgement is not without consequence and a readiness to do so based on very weak evidence is a trait I consider undesirable.
What’s your prior probability that someone reading this thread (during, say, October 2009) has committed or will commit rape or sexual assault within ten years?
I think you are being extremely judgmental. I described my hypothetical character as “misunderstood”, and indeed, here you are misunderstanding him. He’s not dangerous; you can add that to the description: “shy, misunderstood, non-dangerous...” The fact that he “would never dream of saying such a thing except anonymously in an unusually open-minded online community” was intended to illustrate his kindness and sensitivity as a human being in contrast to the boorish brute I placed him in opposition to.
And if it’s different from the probability for a randomly selected person, then why? (We should restrict selection to adult males, in both cases, for a fair comparison.) komponisto, you’ve said you think the fact someone is an LW participant reduces the probability he has or will rape. Why? Are there statistics negatively correlating rapes with IQ or something else relevant? (Not that I know, but I haven’t checked thoroughly.)
As for your misunderstood character. What does he mean when he says women owe more sex to men? What does owing mean for a class, unless there are individuals who can be said to owe?
There are negative correlations between violent crime and IQ, and also positive ones between IQ and self-control, as well as any number of other relevant factors (being well-off, for example). I’d look up some citations for you, but really, those correlations are what you would expect and are easy to find.
(To play the devil’s advocate, we could postulate that perhaps only bright male maladjusted losers post here, and the latter 2 attributes outweigh the former 2.)
I know the correlations with violent crime in general exist. We should still check the correlation for sexual assault in particular, because I don’t know how different it may be from crime in general.
Playing devil’s advocate, we assume here that some sexual assault is driven by feelings of entitlement, and rich, powerful, intelligent males tend to feel more entitled than average (and society supports those feelings in them). The powerful boss sexually assaulting his female secretary is practically a stereotype.
I haven’t the slightest idea. I also have no reason to think that it is higher, lower, or the same as the number for the members of a similarly sized SF convention, trainspotters club, or firm of chartered accountants.
You bet I am.
...invisible, inaudible, and intangible.
He thinks women owe him sex, but is “kind and sensitive” enough not to say so. I seem to feel another judgement coming on.
This imaginary geek: let us suppose he is twenty. One day he will be thirty. Fifty. Eighty, which by then may not be forty, and perhaps he can expect another half century more. Imagine for me this geek in the prime of life at eighty. What has he done in the last sixty years? Is he still whining about not getting any?
I consider your attitude dangerous. Judgement is not without consequence and a readiness to do so based on very weak evidence is a trait I consider undesirable.