Tangent, but there are two different kinds of “overconfidence”:
Having beliefs that are more strongly peaked than is justified
Believing more positive things about yourself and your abilities than is justified
If you’re 95% sure that you will not be President of the USA, then you’re underconfident in the first sense but overconfident in the second sense.
The two sometimes go together in that if you believe you’re better at finding out the truth than you are, you’ll have more strongly peaked probability distributions than you should.
Tangent, but there are two different kinds of “overconfidence”:
Having beliefs that are more strongly peaked than is justified
Believing more positive things about yourself and your abilities than is justified
If you’re 95% sure that you will not be President of the USA, then you’re underconfident in the first sense but overconfident in the second sense.
The two sometimes go together in that if you believe you’re better at finding out the truth than you are, you’ll have more strongly peaked probability distributions than you should.