It might be a good idea to put Bayes’ Theorem into English (I haven’t seen that anywhere). My attempt would be this:
To judge the hypothesis H given the evidence e, you need to know how well H explains e AND the base-rate of H AND compare that with all alternative hypotheses.
So even if you don’t have any numbers to plug into Bayes’ Theorem, the theorem is still a nerdy reminder not to neglect base-rate and to think of alternative explanations.
It might be a good idea to put Bayes’ Theorem into English (I haven’t seen that anywhere). My attempt would be this:
To judge the hypothesis H given the evidence e, you need to know how well H explains e AND the base-rate of H AND compare that with all alternative hypotheses.
So even if you don’t have any numbers to plug into Bayes’ Theorem, the theorem is still a nerdy reminder not to neglect base-rate and to think of alternative explanations.