On things like PredictionBook, is it easy to compare predictions of the question-asker and others? It seems like the sort of thing where I want to predict facts that I’m ~50% on, but outsiders are more extreme (because I’m more likely to be unusually confused about the question), but I’m not sure how that compares to other effects (like general overconfidence).
On things like PredictionBook, is it easy to compare predictions of the question-asker and others? It seems like the sort of thing where I want to predict facts that I’m ~50% on, but outsiders are more extreme (because I’m more likely to be unusually confused about the question), but I’m not sure how that compares to other effects (like general overconfidence).