I’d actually guess that at this point in time, a significant chunk of the intelligence of say Silicon Valley believes that the default Kurzweil/Moravec view is correct—AGI will arrive around when Moore’s law makes it so.
Of course, neither Kurzweil nor Moravec think any such thing—both have estimates of when a computer with the same processing power as the human brain a considerable while before they think the required software will be developed.
Of course, neither Kurzweil nor Moravec think any such thing—both have estimates of when a computer with the same processing power as the human brain a considerable while before they think the required software will be developed.