Perhaps compare a doomsday cult with a drug addict: The outside view (e.g. of family and practitioners) looks one way—while the inside view often looks pretty different.
That’s not what “inside view” means. The way you seem to intend it, it admittedly is a useless tool, but having it as an option in the false dichotomy together with reference class tennis is transparently disingenuous (or stupid).
You seem to be thinking about reference class forecasting. In that particular case, I just meant looking from the outside—but the basic idea is much the same. Doomsday organisations have a pattern. The SIAI isn’t an ordinary one—but it shares many of the same basic traits with them.
That’s not what “inside view” means. The way you seem to intend it, it admittedly is a useless tool, but having it as an option in the false dichotomy together with reference class tennis is transparently disingenuous (or stupid).
You seem to be thinking about reference class forecasting. In that particular case, I just meant looking from the outside—but the basic idea is much the same. Doomsday organisations have a pattern. The SIAI isn’t an ordinary one—but it shares many of the same basic traits with them.