I do not think there is a way to effectively calculate an answer for this question.
You are saying an AI system could easily give you this answer, you are correctly recognizing that at best, they will construct a plausible response that sounds coherent, this is a statistical limitation. To give you a truthful answer, they would probably have to have access to way more data than what you can anecdotally recall.
In the end, you are trying to solve a problem where there’s many confounding variables, like aging, acclimatization, environmental changes, psychological changes. I do not think every problem is an intelligence shaped problem. You can’t really get past the inaccuracy and limits of your own brain.
Unless there is eventually a way to directly extract perfectly preserved past biological and sensory information from your brain (and we do not yet know the precision and upper limit of such hypothetical technology), the exact percentage weights of these factors will remain fundamentally unrecoverable.
I think there is a sizeable gap between “coherent plausible answer” and “most epistemically defensible answer by digital prior, only assailable by lived experience”, just as there is (to your point) a sizeable gap between “most epistemically defensible” and “magic reality oracle”
I do not think there is a way to effectively calculate an answer for this question.
You are saying an AI system could easily give you this answer, you are correctly recognizing that at best, they will construct a plausible response that sounds coherent, this is a statistical limitation. To give you a truthful answer, they would probably have to have access to way more data than what you can anecdotally recall.
In the end, you are trying to solve a problem where there’s many confounding variables, like aging, acclimatization, environmental changes, psychological changes. I do not think every problem is an intelligence shaped problem. You can’t really get past the inaccuracy and limits of your own brain.
Unless there is eventually a way to directly extract perfectly preserved past biological and sensory information from your brain (and we do not yet know the precision and upper limit of such hypothetical technology), the exact percentage weights of these factors will remain fundamentally unrecoverable.
I think there is a sizeable gap between “coherent plausible answer” and “most epistemically defensible answer by digital prior, only assailable by lived experience”, just as there is (to your point) a sizeable gap between “most epistemically defensible” and “magic reality oracle”