Gunther Greindl: In my gut, I STRONGLY agree. My revealed preferences also match it. However, Philip Tetlocks’ “Expert Political Judgment” tells me that among political experts, who have much better predictive powers than educated lay-people, specialists in X don’t outperform specialists in Y in making predictions about X. This worries me A LOT. Another thing that worries me is that decomposing events exhaustively into their subcomponents makes the aggregate event seem more likely and it seems to me that by becoming an expert you come to automatically decompose events into their subcomponents.
Eliezer: I am pretty confident that it would be possible in principle, though not due to time constraints, to make a billion statements and get none wrong while keeping correlations fairly low.
Unknown: I would REALLY like to know details.
Gunther Greindl: In my gut, I STRONGLY agree. My revealed preferences also match it. However, Philip Tetlocks’ “Expert Political Judgment” tells me that among political experts, who have much better predictive powers than educated lay-people, specialists in X don’t outperform specialists in Y in making predictions about X. This worries me A LOT. Another thing that worries me is that decomposing events exhaustively into their subcomponents makes the aggregate event seem more likely and it seems to me that by becoming an expert you come to automatically decompose events into their subcomponents.
Eliezer: I am pretty confident that it would be possible in principle, though not due to time constraints, to make a billion statements and get none wrong while keeping correlations fairly low.