Unknown, describe the money pump. Also, are you the guy who converted to Christianity due to Pascal’s Wager or am I thinking of someone else?
The tug-of-war in “How extreme a low probability to assign?” is driven, on the one hand, by the need for our probabilities to sum to 1 - so if you assign probabilities >> 10^-6 to unjustified statements of such complexity that more than a million of them could be produced, you will be inconsistent and Dutch-bookable. On the other hand, it’s extremely hard to be right about anything a million times in a row.
My instinct is to look for a deontish human strategy for handling this class of problem, one that takes into account both human overconfidence and the desire-to-dismiss, and also the temptation for humans to make up silly things with huge consequences and claim “but you can’t know I’m wrong”.
Unknown, describe the money pump. Also, are you the guy who converted to Christianity due to Pascal’s Wager or am I thinking of someone else?
The tug-of-war in “How extreme a low probability to assign?” is driven, on the one hand, by the need for our probabilities to sum to 1 - so if you assign probabilities >> 10^-6 to unjustified statements of such complexity that more than a million of them could be produced, you will be inconsistent and Dutch-bookable. On the other hand, it’s extremely hard to be right about anything a million times in a row.
My instinct is to look for a deontish human strategy for handling this class of problem, one that takes into account both human overconfidence and the desire-to-dismiss, and also the temptation for humans to make up silly things with huge consequences and claim “but you can’t know I’m wrong”.