I agree in thinking this might slow OpenAI’s frontier development, but I don’t think it’ll move overall timelines by years. OpenAI is currently building out datacenters, so I would expect a delay of at most one year (although this could change who reaches capabilities breakthroughs first).
I just don’t see why an OpenAI slowdown would effect overall industry timelines that substantially. It might reduce pressure on Anthropic to ship, but I don’t expect it to stall their internal development much.
I agree in thinking this might slow OpenAI’s frontier development, but I don’t think it’ll move overall timelines by years. OpenAI is currently building out datacenters, so I would expect a delay of at most one year (although this could change who reaches capabilities breakthroughs first).
I just don’t see why an OpenAI slowdown would effect overall industry timelines that substantially. It might reduce pressure on Anthropic to ship, but I don’t expect it to stall their internal development much.