I agree that the probability that any given message is received at the right time by a civilization that can both decode it and benefit from it is extremely low, but the upside is enormous and the cost of broadcasting is tiny, so a simple expected value calculation may still favor sending many such messages. If this is a simulation, the relevant probabilities may shift because the designers may care about game balance rather than our naive astrophysical prior beliefs. The persistent strangeness of the Fermi paradox should also make us cautious about assigning extremely small probabilities to any particular resolution. Anthropic reasoning should push us toward thinking that the situation humanity is in is more common than we might otherwise expect. Finally, if we are going to send any deliberate interstellar signal at all, then there is a strong argument that it should be the kind of warning this post proposes.
I agree that the probability that any given message is received at the right time by a civilization that can both decode it and benefit from it is extremely low, but the upside is enormous and the cost of broadcasting is tiny, so a simple expected value calculation may still favor sending many such messages. If this is a simulation, the relevant probabilities may shift because the designers may care about game balance rather than our naive astrophysical prior beliefs. The persistent strangeness of the Fermi paradox should also make us cautious about assigning extremely small probabilities to any particular resolution. Anthropic reasoning should push us toward thinking that the situation humanity is in is more common than we might otherwise expect. Finally, if we are going to send any deliberate interstellar signal at all, then there is a strong argument that it should be the kind of warning this post proposes.